Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap

The Minnesota Twins held off the Houston Astros 5-4 at Daikin Park on June 29, 2026, erasing what had been a 55 percent pre-game home win probability for Houston according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate. The Twins built their lead methodically through the middle innings, with Royce Lewis delivering a home run off Peter Lambert in the fourth that added 11.8 percent to Minnesota's win probability, followed by Josh Bell connecting for another home run against Lambert in the sixth for the biggest offensive swing of the night at plus-18.3 percent. Bell finished as Minnesota's most impactful batter by WPA at plus-14.5 percent to go along with a 0.9 RE24, while Victor Caratini also made a meaningful contribution at plus-12.4 percent WPA and plus-1.1 RE24. Zebby Matthews was the pitching standout for the Twins, posting a plus-22.3 percent WPA, though he did surrender a Cam Smith home run in the fifth that cut into the deficit and generated a plus-12.4 percent swing for Houston.

The game's most consequential sequence arrived in the bottom of the ninth, when the Astros rallied to score three runs and make it a one-run game. Joey Loperfido's groundout to end the inning off Yoendrys Gómez was the single biggest play of the night by win-probability impact, adding 31.6 percent to Houston's win probability in batting-team terms — meaning the out represented a massive swing back toward Minnesota, preserving the Twins' one-run lead. Earlier in the sixth, Isaac Paredes had grounded into a double play off Matthews that subtracted 11.9 percent from Houston's chances at a critical moment. Loperfido led all batters in raw WPA at plus-25.5 percent despite a negative RE24 of minus-0.7, a reflection of his plate appearances coming in high-leverage situations where Minnesota's closer ultimately prevailed to seal the 5-4 final.