Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Cincinnati Reds 5-3 on June 29, 2026, at American Family Field, completing a game the DiamondIQ model had favored from the outset with a 69 percent pre-game home win probability that ultimately climbed to 100 percent by the final out. Cincinnati struck first with a run in the opening inning and appeared to seize control in the fifth when Elly De La Cruz launched a home run off Robert Gasser, a swing that carried an 18.9 percent win-probability swing and briefly shifted momentum toward the visitors. That two-run fifth gave the Reds a 3-0 lead heading into the bottom half, but Milwaukee's offense began to chip away through the middle innings, setting the stage for a decisive turn in the contest.

The Brewers unraveled Cincinnati's lead through a sequence of consequential at-bats against Chase Petty in the sixth and seventh innings. A Sal Frelick walk in the bottom of the sixth added 13.9 percent to Milwaukee's win probability, followed immediately by a Jake Bauers single worth another 11.4 percent as the Brewers plated two runs to close the gap. Brice Turang then delivered a solo home run off Petty in the seventh, an 18.1 percent swing that gave Milwaukee its first lead. The knockout blow came in the eighth when Joey Ortiz connected for a home run off Tejay Antone, the single largest win-probability play of the game at plus 33.2 percent, extending the Brewers' lead to 5-3 and effectively closing the door. Among the game's top individual performers, Reds starter Nick Lodolo led all pitchers with a plus 36.6 percent WPA contribution despite absorbing the loss, while De La Cruz paced all position players at plus 24.8 percent WPA and plus 1.2 RE24 in a losing effort. Aaron Ashby added plus 10.6 percent WPA in relief for Milwaukee as the Brewers finished with seven hits and secured the victory.