Washington Nationals at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 0 |
| BAL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
The Story
The Washington Nationals defeated the Baltimore Orioles 6-4 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on June 28, 2026, handing Baltimore a loss that the DiamondIQ model's estimate had opened as a virtual coin flip at 49 percent in favor of the home side. Washington built its advantage through two separate surges, scoring three runs in the third inning and adding two more in the fifth, before tacking on an insurance run in the seventh. Baltimore managed a two-run response in the bottom of the seventh but could not overcome the deficit, finishing with a costly error in their column against Washington's clean defensive sheet.
Luis García Jr. was the undeniable engine of the Nationals' offense, finishing with a combined WPA of plus-38.2 percent and an RE24 of plus-3.6, making him the single most impactful player in the game by DiamondIQ's model. His contributions came in three separate plate appearances: a double off Kyle Bradish in the third inning that swung win probability by plus-16.6 percent, a home run off Tyler Wells in the fifth that added another plus-16.6 percent, and a home run off Albert Suárez in the seventh worth an additional plus-6.7 percent. A Curtis Mead fielding error in the third inning, credited on Bradish, also shifted win probability by plus-10.9 percent for Washington, compounding Baltimore's early troubles. Jackson Holliday provided the Orioles' most significant swing, launching a home run off Mitchell Parker in the seventh that added plus-14.4 percent to Baltimore's win probability, but it proved too little given the margin Washington had established.
On the pitching side, PJ Poulin and Zack Littell each contributed plus-6.0 percent in WPA for Washington, with Richard Lovelady adding plus-4.1 percent, collectively helping preserve the two-run lead through the final innings. The DiamondIQ model's estimate moved from that 49 percent pre-game home probability all the way to zero by the final out, reflecting how thoroughly Washington controlled the contest once García Jr. and the early-inning opportunities took hold.