Seattle Mariners at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates defeated the Seattle Mariners 5-1 at PNC Park on June 25, 2026, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate had trending Pittsburgh's way from the opening pitch, with a pre-game home win probability of 55% that ultimately climbed to 100% by the final out. Pittsburgh's offense established itself early, plating a run in the first inning before adding two more in the third, and the Mariners never mounted a sustained enough response to threaten that cushion.

The game's single most consequential moment came in the bottom of the third, when Henry Davis connected on a home run off Bryce Miller, a swing that shifted win probability by plus-14.1 percentage points and effectively widened what had been a modest lead into a commanding one. Davis finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-15.6 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.1, making him the clear offensive catalyst for Pittsburgh. Seattle's best opportunity to claw back came in the fifth, when J.P. Crawford's single off Bubba Chandler added 8.3 percentage points of win probability, but Julio Rodriguez immediately followed with a double-play grounder that erased the threat and swung the needle back Pittsburgh's way by minus-10.8 points. Rob Refsnyder's flyout in the seventh, costing Seattle minus-12.2 percentage points, similarly extinguished whatever slim hopes remained.

On the mound, Mason Montgomery was the defining force, finishing with a plus-20.3 percent WPA to lead all pitchers in the game. Bubba Chandler added plus-11.2 percent of his own, and Evan Sisk contributed plus-6.3 percent in relief, the trio collectively keeping Seattle's lineup at bay through the final frames. Pittsburgh added two insurance runs in the eighth to set the final margin at four, and the Mariners' 1-for-6 errors-free afternoon at the plate simply never generated enough pressure to test a Pittsburgh staff that the DiamondIQ model's estimate recognized as firmly in control throughout.