Chicago Cubs at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs defeated the New York Mets 4-3 in ten innings at Citi Field on June 25, 2026, overcoming a late deficit to hand New York a loss the DiamondIQ model had assigned a 42 percent pre-game chance of avoiding. The game was scoreless through five innings before erupting in the sixth, when Eric Wagaman's home run off Hoby Milner gave the Mets a two-run swing worth plus-21.2 percent win probability. The Cubs responded in the same frame, and Jared Young extended New York's lead in the seventh with a home run off Phil Maton that added plus-17.3 percent win probability to the Mets' ledger, pushing them into a position that looked increasingly favorable heading into the final innings.

The Cubs undid that work in the tenth, decisively and quickly. Pete Crow-Armstrong delivered the go-ahead blow with a double off Brooks Raley that represented the single largest win-probability swing of the night at plus-33.7 percent, turning the game on its head. On the Mets' side, Carson Benge's groundout to strand the automatic runner in the bottom of the tenth added plus-19.0 percent win probability for Chicago, and Michael Busch's flyout in the top half off Raley had also swung plus-17.4 percent in New York's favor before Crow-Armstrong erased that. The Cubs ultimately won despite being outscored, outhit nine to six, and committing one error to New York's two.

On the pitching side, Matthew Boyd led Cubs starters and relievers with plus-14.8 percent WPA, while Devin Williams and Caleb Thielbar contributed plus-13.5 and plus-10.9 percent respectively as Chicago's bullpen held the line. Crow-Armstrong finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-26.4 percent with a plus-0.8 RE24, while Young posted the highest RE24 of any batter at plus-1.3 to go with his plus-22.8 percent WPA. The DiamondIQ model closed with New York at zero percent win probability, a fitting punctuation on a game the Mets controlled for much of nine innings only to lose in extras.