Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| SD | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | - | 5 | 7 | 1 |
The Story
The San Diego Padres defeated the Atlanta Braves 5-2 at Petco Park on June 24, 2026, in a game that began as a tightly contested affair before San Diego pulled away with a decisive sixth inning. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving the home side a 46% chance of winning, a near coin-flip that reflected how evenly matched the two clubs appeared early. The Padres drew first blood in the third inning when Ty France connected on a home run off Martín Pérez, a swing worth +10.6% in win probability that gave San Diego an early foothold. The Braves managed nothing in response through five frames, though Xander Bogaerts extended the Padres' advantage with a single off James Karinchak in the fifth, a hit that added another 9.8 percentage points to San Diego's chances.
The game's decisive sequence arrived in the sixth inning, when both offenses came alive in a span of half an inning that effectively ended the competitive tension. Atlanta appeared to mount a challenge when Joey Bart launched a home run off JP Sears in the top half, a two-run shot worth +18.5% win probability that briefly tightened the game. The Braves were unable to sustain the momentum, however, as Jorge Mateo's flyout in the fourth had already cost Atlanta 7.0 percentage points, and the club's one error compounded their offensive limitations. San Diego answered immediately in the bottom of the sixth when Samad Taylor singled off Tyler Kinley, a hit worth +17.8% that swung the DiamondIQ model's estimate decisively back toward the Padres and proved to be the game's final turning point.
Among the individual performers, Bart finished as Atlanta's lone standout, posting a +18.9% WPA and a RE24 of +1.9 despite ending up on the losing side. For San Diego, France led all players in cumulative impact at +18.2% WPA and +1.3 RE24, while Taylor contributed +16.6% WPA and +1.4 RE24. On the mound, JP Sears paced all pitchers with a +8.0% WPA, followed by David Morgan at +6.5% and Wandy Peralta at +4.5%, a trio of Padres arms that collectively preserved the two-run cushion through the final three innings. The DiamondIQ model, which opened the night nearly even, finished at 100% certainty in San Diego's favor as the Padres closed out the Braves on seven hits.