Seattle Mariners at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 2 |
| PIT | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 1 |
The Story
The Seattle Mariners held on to defeat the Pittsburgh Pirates 3-2 at PNC Park on June 23, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate entering the game giving Pittsburgh a 52 percent chance of winning at home. The Mariners ultimately silenced that projection entirely, finishing the night at zero percent for the Pirates. Seattle built its winning margin across the middle innings, with Cal Raleigh connecting on a solo home run off Mitch Keller in the fourth inning, a swing the DiamondIQ model valued at a 10.4 percent win-probability shift. The more decisive blow came in the seventh, when Cole Young launched a home run off Keller that carried a 21.4 percent win-probability swing, pushing Seattle's lead to 3-1 and putting the Pirates in a difficult position to recover.
Pittsburgh managed to cut the deficit to one in the bottom of the ninth, but Seattle's bullpen did not yield further ground. The single most consequential moment of the game belonged to closer Andrés Muñoz, who struck out Brandon Lowe to end the contest, a play the DiamondIQ model registered as a 31.6 percent win-probability shift in Seattle's favor. Muñoz's strikeout came after Pittsburgh had already seen its threat neutralized, and it sealed a two-run win for the visitors. Eduard Bazardo also played a critical role in preserving the lead, as Jake Mangum's flyout off him in the bottom of the eighth represented a 22.1 percent swing against Pittsburgh's chances.
Among individual performers, Brandon Lowe finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-36.2 percent, while Cole Young followed at plus-17.2 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.0, reflecting his tangible run-context contribution. On the pitching side, Bazardo led Seattle's relievers with plus-23.3 percent WPA, followed by Mason Montgomery at plus-10.8 percent and José A. Ferrer at plus-9.7 percent. Pittsburgh's Nick Gonzales had shown early signs of an offense capable of competing, contributing a third-inning single worth 11.7 percent in win probability, but the Pirates could not generate enough against Seattle's bullpen in the game's final frames.