Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago White Sox defeated the Cleveland Guardians 2-1 at Rate Field on June 23, 2026, in a low-scoring contest that the DiamondIQ model entered favoring the home side at 55% and closed at 100% certainty in Chicago's favor. The game unfolded through three scoreless innings before the White Sox broke through in the fourth on a Colson Montgomery single off Parker Messick, a hit that shifted win probability by plus 10.6 points. Cleveland answered in the fifth when Kahlil Watson connected on a home run against Sean Burke, swinging the model's estimate by plus 12.3 points and briefly drawing the Guardians even. That lead was short-lived, as Miguel Vargas erased it with a solo home run off Messick in the bottom of the sixth, a swing worth plus 13.8 points in win probability and the decisive blow of the evening.

On the offensive side, Vargas finished as the game's most impactful hitter by the DiamondIQ model's measure, posting a plus 18.4% WPA and a RE24 of plus 0.4. Austin Hedges contributed plus 10.2% WPA and led all position players with a RE24 of plus 0.9, while Montgomery added plus 7.7% WPA alongside a plus 0.6 RE24. Cleveland's chances were most visibly damaged by a Brayan Rocchio pop out in the fifth, which cost the Guardians 9.5 points of win probability, and a Travis Bazzana strikeout in the third that subtracted another 7.9 points. The final line reflected the tightness of the game, with Chicago managing just three hits to Cleveland's six but committing no errors against one for the Guardians. Sean Newcomb led all pitchers by win probability added at plus 37.2%, with Messick and Burke contributing plus 12.6% and plus 11.6% respectively in a collectively stingy pitching performance on both sides.