Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
The Story
The Arizona Diamondbacks stunned St. Louis 4-3 at Busch Stadium on June 23, 2026, in a game that produced all seven runs in the final inning after eight scoreless frames. The DiamondIQ model had entered the day with the Cardinals as 58 percent favorites, but that edge evaporated entirely by the final out. Arizona broke the deadlock in the top of the ninth when Nolan Arenado laced a double off Matt Svanson, a swing that shifted win probability by plus 30.7 percent and proved to be the single most impactful plate appearance of the night. The Cardinals answered with three runs in the bottom half, including a Blaze Jordan sacrifice fly off Paul Sewald that trimmed the deficit to one and swung win probability 11.4 percent in St. Louis's favor, but Arizona's four-run outburst was ultimately too much to overcome.
The pitching performance that defined the outcome belonged to Eduardo Rodriguez, whose outing generated plus 39.3 percent in win probability for St. Louis, the highest single-pitcher figure in the game. Rodriguez navigated around a Lars Nootbaar walk in the sixth that nudged Cardinals odds up 9.6 percent, and he also induced a Nelson Velázquez double play in that same frame, a sequence that erased a Cardinals threat and swung probability 19.2 percent against the home side. Kyle Leahy and Max Rajcic each contributed meaningfully for Arizona, adding plus 24.9 and plus 19.4 percent win probability respectively as the bullpen protected the lead through the chaos of the ninth.
Among position players, Arenado finished as the game's top WPA contributor at plus 23.8 percent alongside a 0.5 RE24, his ninth-inning double serving as the decisive blow. JJ Wetherholt's strikeout to end the bottom of the ninth, which added plus 27.0 percent in win probability on the play and plus 16.3 percent to his game total, sealed the victory for Arizona. Nootbaar was the Cardinals' most productive offensive presence, finishing at plus 11.7 percent WPA and plus 1.4 RE24, though St. Louis could not convert his contributions into enough damage against a D-backs club that needed only one inning to decide a nine-inning game.