Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres walked off the Atlanta Braves 7-6 in ten innings on June 23, 2026, at Petco Park, erasing a pre-game DiamondIQ model estimate that gave the home side just a 45 percent chance of winning before first pitch. The game's decisive moment came in the bottom of the tenth, when Manny Machado singled off Raisel Iglesias to plate the winning run, swinging win probability by 35.9 points and sending the model's estimate to 100 percent in favor of San Diego. The bulk of the scoring had been crammed into a chaotic second inning that saw Atlanta plate four runs and San Diego answer with five, setting a tone that neither club would sustain for long stretches. Fernando Tatis Jr. provided the game's most emphatic individual swing in regulation, launching a home run off Carlos Carrasco in the bottom of the seventh that added 17.3 points of win probability and briefly gave San Diego breathing room. Atlanta's Mauricio Dubón countered with a home run of his own off Yuki Matsui in the fifth, a swing worth 12.7 points on the WPA ledger, while the Braves' offense stalled in extra innings as Rowdy Tellez struck out against Mason Miller at a cost of 18.0 points and Austin Riley followed with a flyout that shed another 16.4 points from Atlanta's chances.

Among individual performers tracked by the DiamondIQ model, Machado led all batters with a 28.6 WPA, though Michael Harris II posted the most productive overall line by combined metrics, finishing at plus-23.3 WPA and plus-2.2 RE24 to pace the Braves side despite the loss. Tatis finished at plus-18.7 WPA and plus-1.6 RE24 on the strength of his seventh-inning blast. On the pitching side, Dylan Lee was the most valuable arm by WPA at plus-16.8, with Adrian Morejon adding plus-10.6 and Mason Miller closing at plus-9.5 after retiring Atlanta in order to strand the tying run and preserve the walkoff opportunity for Machado.