Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap

The Houston Astros defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 9-7 in eleven innings at Rogers Centre on June 23, 2026, erasing a late deficit to hand Toronto a painful extra-innings loss. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with the Blue Jays holding a 56 percent pre-game win probability, but that figure reached zero by the final out. The game turned on a pair of back-and-forth stretches, with Toronto building momentum through the seventh and eighth innings before Houston responded decisively in the eleventh.

The pivotal sequence began in the bottom of the seventh, when Daulton Varsho connected on a home run off Enyel De Los Santos, a swing the DiamondIQ model valued at plus 28.7 percent win probability and one that pushed Toronto's chances firmly upward. Kazuma Okamoto followed with a similar impact in the bottom of the eighth, lashing a single off Nate Pearson worth plus 29.4 percent, extending Toronto's lead into the late innings. Houston, however, refused to fold. A catcher interference call on Joey Loperfido in the top of the ninth off Tyler Rogers registered at plus 23.2 percent win probability, keeping the Astros alive, while George Springer's groundout to end the bottom of the tenth off Logan VanWey cost Toronto minus 19.5 percent, a missed opportunity that loomed large.

Loperfido then delivered the knockout blow in the top of the eleventh, launching a home run off Braydon Fisher that swung win probability by plus 66.5 percent and effectively ended the contest. Loperfido finished as the game's most impactful player at plus 89.7 percent WPA and plus 4.1 RE24, while Okamoto contributed plus 46.7 percent WPA and plus 3.5 RE24 in a losing effort for Toronto. On the pitching side, Jeff Hoffman led Houston's staff at plus 14.0 percent WPA, with Peter Lambert adding plus 10.4 percent in support.