Chicago Cubs at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs handed the New York Mets a 10-3 defeat at Citi Field on June 22, 2026, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had pegged as a 44 percent pre-game home win probability for New York and running that figure all the way to zero by the final out. The game remained scoreless through three innings before the Mets struck first, plating three runs in the bottom of the fourth on a Jared Young home run off Javier Assad, a blow that shifted win probability 17.3 percent in New York's favor. That lead, however, proved short-lived.

The Cubs answered emphatically in the fifth and sixth innings, both at the expense of Mets reliever Nolan McLean. Michael Busch erased the deficit with a home run in the top of the fifth, a swing worth 20.6 percent in win probability, and Michael Conforto followed later in that same frame with a double that added another 9.6 percent. Dansby Swanson then delivered the decisive blow in the top of the sixth, a home run off McLean that swung win probability 33.4 percent toward Chicago and effectively put the game out of reach. The Cubs tacked on four more runs in the eighth to reach the final margin of ten. A bottom-of-the-sixth double play grounded into by Eric Wagaman cost the Mets 9.3 percent in win probability, underscoring how quickly their window had closed.

Swanson finished as the game's most impactful performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, posting a combined WPA of plus-34.2 percent and a RE24 of plus-4.9, while Busch contributed plus-24.1 percent WPA and plus-1.9 RE24. Young's fourth-inning home run made him New York's standout, finishing at plus-18.0 percent WPA and plus-1.3 RE24. On the mound, Caleb Thielbar led Chicago's relievers with plus-6.3 percent WPA, with Ryan Rolison adding plus-6.0 percent in support of a Cubs pitching staff that surrendered no additional runs after the fourth inning.