MLB Recap · June 20, 2026

Minnesota Twins at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

MIN16
Final
AZ8

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
MIN200410000016200
AZ000020510880

The Story

The Minnesota Twins battered the Arizona Diamondbacks 16-8 at Chase Field on June 20, 2026, erasing a pre-game deficit in the DiamondIQ model's estimate that had set Arizona's home win probability at 58% before first pitch. Minnesota scored 2 in the first, erupted for 4 in the fourth, and then delivered the knockout blow with 10 runs in the fifth inning, effectively rendering the final four frames academic despite Arizona's 5-run seventh.

The turning point came in the fourth inning, where Ryan Kreidler's single off Zac Gallen shifted win probability 7.2 percentage points in Minnesota's favor, followed immediately by Trevor Larnach's single off Gallen that added another 6.4 points. Those back-to-back hits were the decisive sequence in a game that Gallen could not survive. On the Arizona side, the model's biggest negative swings came from missed opportunities early, when Adrian Del Castillo's flyout in the second dropped Arizona's chances by 7.7 percentage points and Lourdes Gurriel Jr.'s pop out in the first cost the Diamondbacks another 7.4 points, both outs coming off Taj Bradley in what proved to be a tale of two starters.

Bradley was the primary individual story of the evening, posting a remarkable plus-26.0% WPA as the Twins' starter, reflecting the degree to which he personally held Arizona in check while his offense built an insurmountable cushion. Among position players, Larnach led all hitters at plus-11.7% WPA, while Kreidler contributed a team-high plus-3.6 RE24, meaning his plate appearances added the most raw run value on the night. Victor Caratini added plus-7.6% WPA and plus-2.0 RE24, his strikeout drawn in the first adding 5.5 points to Minnesota's win probability by extending Gallen's pitch count early. The Twins finished with 20 hits against zero errors, a dominant performance that the DiamondIQ model ultimately assigned a 100% final win probability.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025MIN bats firstFinalAZ win %MIN win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 57.8% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Bot 2nd · off Taj Bradley
-7.7%
Bot 1st · off Taj Bradley
-7.4%
Ryan Kreidler Single
Top 4th · off Zac Gallen
+7.2%
Trevor Larnach Single
Top 4th · off Zac Gallen
+6.4%
Victor Caratini Strikeout
Top 1st · off Zac Gallen
+5.5%

Top Batters by WPA

Trevor Larnach+11.7%+1.6 RE24
Victor Caratini+7.6%+2.0 RE24
Ryan Kreidler+6.7%+3.6 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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