San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins defeated the San Francisco Giants 6-3 at loanDepot park on June 20, 2026, handing San Francisco a loss that was largely decided by a single decisive inning. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Miami holding a 64% win probability before first pitch, and that figure climbed to 100% by the final out.

The fourth inning served as the turning point, swinging the contest decisively in Miami's favor. Casey Schmitt gave San Francisco a temporary lift in the top half, connecting on a home run off Max Meyer that added 11.4% to the Giants' win probability. The Marlins answered emphatically in the bottom half, however. Kyle Stowers drew a walk off Matt Gage to begin the damage, adding 7.5% to Miami's outlook, before Heriberto Hernández put the game firmly in the Marlins' hands with a home run off Gage that swung win probability by 13.2%. Jakob Marsee followed with a single off Trevor McDonald worth another 10.6%, capping a four-run inning that gave Miami a lead it would never surrender. The Giants also committed four errors on the day, which compounded the damage against a Marlins lineup that managed to convert despite generating only six hits. A Jung Hoo Lee flyout to close the top of the third, which cost San Francisco 6.4% in win probability, illustrated how the Giants repeatedly failed to capitalize in key moments.

Drew Gilbert led Miami's performers with a team-high plus-13.8% WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.9, while Schmitt's home run made him San Francisco's most impactful offensive contributor at plus-13.6% WPA and plus-1.9 RE24. Marsee finished third among position players at plus-10.8% WPA. On the mound, Tyler Zuber paced Miami's relievers with plus-4.9% WPA, supported by JT Brubaker at plus-3.1% and Pete Fairbanks at plus-2.4%, a trio that helped preserve the three-run margin through the final innings.