Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Toronto Blue Jays rallied past the Chicago Cubs 8-6 at Wrigley Field on June 20, 2026, overcoming an early deficit to hand the Cubs a loss the DiamondIQ model had given just a 57 percent chance of avoiding before first pitch. Chicago built its lead in the second inning when Matt Shaw connected on a home run off Patrick Corbin, a swing that shifted win probability by 15.3 percent in the Cubs' favor, and added two more runs in the sixth to push their advantage to five. Toronto, however, refused to fold, scoring three times in the seventh before erupting for five runs in the eighth to seize control entirely.

The decisive moment of the game arrived in the top of the eighth inning against Jacob Webb. With Toronto already threatening, Kazuma Okamoto launched a home run that swung win probability by 39.3 percent, the single largest play of the night by a wide margin. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Alejandro Kirk each added singles in that same frame, pushing through two more runs and effectively putting the game away. Chicago mounted a response in the bottom half when Pete Crow-Armstrong singled off Mason Fluharty for a 15.9-percent swing, but the Cubs were unable to close a five-run gap and finished with a run that made the final score respectable rather than competitive.

By final WPA, Okamoto was the clear standout at plus-36.8 percent, pairing that figure with a plus-2.5 RE24 that reflected his outsized impact on run expectancy. Crow-Armstrong matched that RE24 mark at plus-2.5 while finishing at plus-29.1 percent WPA, the top figure on the losing side. Guerrero Jr. contributed plus-19.4 percent WPA in support. On the mound, Louis Varland led Toronto's pitching staff with plus-18.5 percent WPA, followed by Colin Rea at plus-11.5 percent and Ryan Rolison at plus-8.9 percent, a trio that held Chicago in check through the game's final stages after the Blue Jays seized the lead.