MLB Recap · June 18, 2026

Cleveland Guardians at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

CLE4
Final
MIL2

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
CLE001001200470
MIL010100000250

The Story

The Cleveland Guardians handed the Milwaukee Brewers a 4-2 defeat at American Family Field on June 18, 2026, overcoming a pre-game DiamondIQ model estimate that gave the home side a 63 percent chance of winning. Cleveland scratched across single runs in the third and fourth innings to stay close before breaking the game open with a pair of crucial long balls, ultimately holding Milwaukee scoreless across the final five innings to close out the road victory on seven hits and no errors.

The decisive sequence unfolded in the sixth and seventh innings. Kyle Manzardo's home run off Joel Kuhnel in the top of the sixth shifted the DiamondIQ model's estimate by plus 13.8 percent in Cleveland's favor, and Travis Bazzana followed with an even larger blow an inning later, a home run off Grant Anderson that swung win probability by plus 16.5 percent and effectively put the game out of reach. Milwaukee had opportunities to respond in the bottom of the seventh, but Andrew Vaughn grounded out against Colin Holderman, costing the Brewers 14.5 percentage points of win probability, and Joey Ortiz then grounded into a double play off Tim Herrin for another 14.0-point swing against the home club. The most damaging single moment of the night came in the eighth, when Christian Yelich struck out against Cade Smith with runners presumably in a position to threaten, a swing of minus 20.9 percent in Milwaukee's win probability that effectively sealed the outcome.

Bazzana led all position players with a plus 19.3 percent WPA and a 1.1 RE24, while Manzardo posted plus 14.6 percent WPA and an identical 1.1 RE24, making the two home run hitters the clear offensive catalysts. Jake Bauers contributed plus 14.8 percent WPA despite a slightly negative RE24 of minus 0.3. On the mound, starter Parker Messick was the most valuable arm by win probability added at plus 11.6 percent, with Shane Drohan and Tim Herrin providing additional support at plus 5.3 and plus 4.7 percent respectively, combining to preserve the two-run margin through the final frames.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025CLE bats firstFinalMIL win %CLE win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 63.1% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Christian Yelich Strikeout
Bot 8th · off Cade Smith
-20.9%
Travis Bazzana Home Run
Top 7th · off Grant Anderson
+16.5%
Andrew Vaughn Groundout
Bot 7th · off Colin Holderman
-14.5%
Joey Ortiz Grounded Into DP
Bot 7th · off Tim Herrin
-14.0%
Kyle Manzardo Home Run
Top 6th · off Joel Kuhnel
+13.8%

Top Batters by WPA

Travis Bazzana+19.3%+1.1 RE24
Jake Bauers+14.8%-0.3 RE24
Kyle Manzardo+14.6%+1.1 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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