Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap

The Detroit Tigers handed the Houston Astros a 9-3 defeat at Daikin Park on June 15, 2026, handing the home side a final win probability of zero percent against a pre-game DiamondIQ model estimate that had favored Houston at 57 percent. Detroit scored in five of nine innings and never allowed the Astros to gain sustained traction, finishing with 11 hits and no errors while holding Houston to seven hits and a clean fielding sheet of their own.

The decisive swing of the game came in the top of the third inning, when Colt Keith connected on a home run off Kai-Wei Teng that shifted win probability 15.9 percent in Detroit's favor. Houston answered immediately in the bottom half, as Isaac Paredes hit a home run off Jacob Waguespack worth plus 11.6 percent for the Astros, and Jose Altuve followed with his own home run off Waguespack adding another 9.0 percent, making the third inning the most volatile frame of the contest. A Christian Vázquez groundout in the second inning had already cost Houston 9.2 percent win probability against Drew Anderson, signaling early that the Astros were struggling to convert opportunities. Keith then put the game firmly away with a second home run in the top of the seventh off Jayden Murray, a swing worth plus 8.1 percent that pushed Detroit's advantage beyond any realistic recovery.

Keith led all players with a combined WPA of plus 20.7 percent and an RE24 of plus 5.1, making him the clear driver of the Tigers' offense. Paredes posted plus 15.2 percent WPA and plus 2.6 RE24 in a losing effort for Houston, while Spencer Torkelson contributed plus 9.7 percent WPA for Detroit despite a neutral RE24. On the mound, Drew Anderson was the standout with plus 17.6 percent WPA, supported by Steven Okert at plus 8.7 percent and Tyler Holton at plus 7.0 percent, a collective pitching performance that kept Houston's lineup from mounting any meaningful response after the third inning.