San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 3 | 8 | 0 |
The Story
The St. Louis Cardinals shut out the San Diego Padres 3-0 on June 15, 2026, at Busch Stadium, where the DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with the Cardinals holding a 58% win probability before climbing to 100% by the final out. St. Louis generated all of its offense in the fourth and fifth innings, leaving San Diego to manage just one hit across nine frames against a Cardinals pitching staff that was dominant from start to finish.
The turning point arrived in the bottom of the fourth, when Jimmy Crooks doubled off Lucas Giolito to shift the win probability by plus-20.3 percentage points, the single largest swing of the game. Alec Burleson followed with another double in the fifth off Giolito, adding a further plus-8.3 percentage point move and extending the Cardinals lead to three runs. San Diego's best chance to respond came in the seventh, when Manny Machado singled off Dustin May to nudge the Padres' win probability up 5.2 percentage points, but Gavin Sheets immediately erased that momentum with a ground into a double play that cost the Padres 11.8 percentage points in win probability.
Dustin May was the standout performer of the night, finishing with a plus-34.9% WPA to lead all players, anchoring a Cardinals bullpen effort that kept San Diego off the board entirely through the game's final innings. Crooks led all batters with a plus-16.2% WPA and a plus-1.0 RE24, his fourth-inning double proving to be the decisive blow. Lars Nootbaar contributed a plus-4.9% WPA and plus-0.6 RE24, while the model leaned heavily toward St. Louis from the moment those middle-inning runs crossed the plate.