St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 5-4 on June 11, 2026, at Citi Field in a game the DiamondIQ model's estimate had as a modest 42 percent home win probability at first pitch. St. Louis jumped out to an early lead, scoring once in the first inning and three more in the second on a Jimmy Crooks home run off Christian Scott that added 6.8 percent win probability for the Cardinals. New York chipped away with a run in the fifth when Jared Young singled off Justin Bruihl, a swing that shifted the odds 7.8 percent in the Mets' favor, but it was the seventh inning that decided the game.

With the Cardinals still holding a one-run advantage entering the bottom of the seventh, Juan Soto launched a home run off JoJo Romero that swung win probability 18.0 percent toward New York and gave the Mets the lead for good. That one swing was the defining moment of the contest, and Soto finished as the game's most impactful offensive player, accumulating a WPA of plus-20.5 percent and an RE24 of plus-1.0. Jared Young also contributed meaningfully, finishing at plus-7.0 percent WPA and plus-1.3 RE24, while Brett Baty posted a WPA of plus-8.1 percent despite a negative RE24 of minus-0.8.

The Cardinals threatened in the ninth, but Devin Williams shut the door, recording a strikeout of Jimmy Crooks that swung win probability 7.1 percent toward New York and ended St. Louis's last realistic chance. Williams finished as the top pitcher by WPA at plus-15.2 percent, followed by A.J. Minter at plus-11.0 percent and starter Luke Weaver at plus-10.8 percent. The DiamondIQ model's estimate closed at 100 percent for New York, reflecting a final three innings in which the Mets' bullpen allowed no Cardinals runs and protected a lead built almost entirely on Soto's decisive seventh-inning blast.