Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

San Diego walked off Cincinnati 5-4 on June 10, 2026 at Petco Park, with Fernando Tatis Jr. delivering a go-ahead home run off Chase Petty in the bottom of the ninth to swing the DiamondIQ model's win probability by 45.9 points and close out the Padres' comeback win. The DiamondIQ model had opened the night giving San Diego a 58 percent chance to win at home, a figure that climbed steadily before reaching certainty once Tatis connected. It was the defining moment of a tightly contested game that saw the lead change hands across the late innings.

Cincinnati had built what looked like a viable cushion entering the eighth. Spencer Steer had given the Reds a two-run burst with a fourth-inning home run off Michael King, a swing worth 18.2 percentage points in win probability, and JJ Bleday added a solo shot off King in the seventh that pushed Cincinnati's advantage further, contributing another 17.0 points. San Diego began clawing back in the bottom of the eighth, where Samad Taylor's single off Tony Santillan shifted the win probability 21.3 points in the Padres' favor and set the stage for what followed. Bleday then grounded into a double play in the top of the ninth, a sequence that cost Cincinnati 18.2 points and left the door open for Tatis to end it.

Tatis finished as the game's most impactful player by a significant margin, accumulating a total WPA of plus 51.4 percent alongside a RE24 of plus 1.3. Samad Taylor and Eugenio Suárez also contributed positively for San Diego, posting WPA figures of plus 12.4 and plus 12.3, respectively. On the pitching side, Wandy Peralta led all pitchers with a WPA of plus 13.5, with Brady Singer at plus 11.8 and Zach Maxwell at plus 9.7 also supporting the Padres' effort. Cincinnati finished with 10 hits but could not sustain its late lead, dropping a game in which its bullpen could not hold off a San Diego lineup that ultimately needed just one swing to decide the outcome.