Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap

The Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Boston Red Sox 7-5 on June 10, 2026, at Tropicana Field, holding on through a late Boston surge to complete a win the DiamondIQ model had pegged at 73 percent probability before first pitch. Tampa Bay built its lead methodically, scoring across the middle innings — one run in the third, three in the fifth, and one in the sixth — before the game's most consequential exchange took place in the eighth inning, when both clubs traded home runs that briefly reshaped the win-probability landscape.

The biggest single swing of the night came in the top of the eighth, when Ceddanne Rafaela connected on a home run off Steven Matz that shifted win probability 21.8 points toward Boston, representing the closest the Red Sox came to threatening Tampa Bay's grip on the game. The Rays answered immediately in the bottom half, as Cedric Mullins launched a home run off Justin Slaten that swung win probability 18.0 points back toward Tampa Bay and effectively sealed the outcome. Earlier, Austin Slater's fifth-inning double off Jake Bennett had been the key blow in Tampa Bay's three-run frame, generating a 13.3-point win-probability swing that extended the Rays' cushion at a critical juncture. Nick Fortes also contributed with a third-inning double off Bennett worth 6.4 points of win probability.

On the individual ledger, Rafaela led all position players with a WPA of plus-19.4 and an RE24 of plus-1.9, though his effort came too late to change the result. Fortes finished at plus-14.4 WPA and plus-1.8 RE24, while Mullins posted plus-12.2 WPA. On the mound, Drew Rasmussen was the most impactful arm of the evening at plus-15.6 WPA, anchoring a Tampa Bay pitching effort that scattered six hits and committed no errors across nine innings. Boston likewise played clean defensively, but the Rays' 13-hit attack and their ability to protect the lead in the eighth proved decisive.