St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals shut out the New York Mets 7-0 at Citi Field on June 9, 2026, a result that moved the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Mets win from 42% before first pitch to 0% by the final out. The game was effectively decided in a third inning that buried New York before it could establish any foothold. The Cardinals plated four runs in that frame, with Nathan Church delivering the most impactful blow of the night, a double off Freddy Peralta that shifted win probability by 10.4 percentage points. Jordan Walker followed with a double of his own worth 9.1 percentage points, and JJ Wetherholt added a single that moved the needle another 8.7 points. The Mets' best opportunity to respond came at the bottom of that same inning, but Carson Benge grounded into a double play off Dustin May, a sequence that cost New York 4.4 percentage points of win probability and effectively extinguished any rally before it started. Alec Burleson added a home run off Peralta in the fifth, a swing worth 7.4 percentage points, pushing the Cardinals to 6-0 at that stage.

Dustin May was the standout individual performer by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, accumulating a WPA of plus-11.6 percentage points across his outing while the Mets managed only five hits across nine innings as a team. Among position players, Church led all batters with a WPA of plus-10.1 and an RE24 of plus-1.2, while Wetherholt finished at plus-7.7 WPA and Walker at plus-5.7. Matt Svanson and Cionel Pérez each contributed in relief without moving the win-probability needle, reflecting how thoroughly May had locked down the game before they entered. St. Louis finished with ten hits and no errors, while New York was held without a run across all nine innings, a clean and decisive road performance with the model leaning heavily toward the Cardinals having been the better team from the third inning onward.