Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 2 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | 5 | 6 | 0 |
The Story
The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Cincinnati Reds 5-3 at Busch Stadium on June 7, 2026, handing Cincinnati a loss despite the visitors generating more hits on the night. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 61% pre-game win probability in favor of the home Cardinals, and that estimate climbed steadily to 100% by the final out. Cincinnati briefly appeared dangerous, as Matt McLain connected on a home run off Michael McGreevy in the third inning, the biggest swing of the early game at +10.5% WPA, and Tyler Stephenson followed in the same frame with a solo shot off McGreevy that added another +9.8% WPA. Those two blows staked the Reds to a 2-0 lead through four, but St. Louis answered emphatically in the fifth.
The Cardinals' comeback pivoted on Bryan Torres, whose home run off Chris Paddack in the bottom of the fifth represented the single most consequential play of the evening, shifting win probability by +26.5% and capping a three-run inning that flipped the lead. Victor Scott II then delivered the decisive blow in the bottom of the eighth, a fielder's choice off Sam Moll that carried a +18.6% WPA swing and extended the Cardinals to their final 5-3 margin. McLain kept Cincinnati's offense alive with a second home run in the seventh, this one off George Soriano worth +15.8% WPA, but the Reds could not sustain enough pressure against St. Louis's bullpen. The Cardinals committed no errors compared to Cincinnati's two, a detail that reflected the cleaner execution on the home side throughout the night.
On the individual ledger, Victor Scott II finished as the top batter by WPA at +20.5% alongside a +2.0 RE24, edging Bryan Torres at +20.4% WPA and +1.2 RE24. McLain led all Reds batters at +19.5% WPA and +1.4 RE24 despite being on the losing side. Cardinals pitching was anchored by Rhett Lowder, whose +15.7% WPA contribution topped all pitchers, with Ryne Stanek adding +11.1% and Brock Burke contributing +8.3% as St. Louis's relief corps protected the lead through the final frames.