New York Mets at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets handed the San Diego Padres a 7-3 defeat at Petco Park on June 7, 2026, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had opened as a 61 percent pre-game probability of a San Diego victory. The Mets struck early with single runs in each of the first two innings before the game's pivotal stretch arrived in the fifth and sixth. In the bottom of the fifth, Freddy Fermin connected on a home run off Sean Manaea that represented the single largest win-probability swing of the night at plus 15.0 percent in San Diego's favor, briefly tightening the contest. New York answered immediately, with a Juan Soto walk off Randy Vásquez adding 6.2 percent to the Mets' win probability and setting the table for a two-run fifth-inning frame. Then in the top of the sixth, the Mets broke the game open against Yuki Matsui, as MJ Melendez launched a home run worth plus 10.3 percent and Carson Benge followed with his own home run worth plus 7.7 percent, a back-to-back sequence that effectively ended San Diego's realistic path to victory.

Benge finished as the game's most impactful offensive player with a cumulative WPA of plus 15.3 percent and a RE24 of plus 3.3, while Soto contributed plus 8.7 percent WPA despite a quieter counting-stat line. Melendez added plus 6.7 percent WPA, though his RE24 of minus 0.6 reflected some strand situations on the bases. On the pitching side, Sean Manaea led all pitchers with plus 10.8 percent WPA for the Mets despite surrendering Fermin's home run, as his overall command of the San Diego lineup limited further damage. Huascar Brazobán contributed plus 6.3 percent WPA out of the bullpen, and Brooks Raley added plus 4.1 percent as New York's relief corps kept San Diego to a single run over the final five innings before a Padres ninth-inning run made the final score 7-3. The DiamondIQ model closed with San Diego's win probability at zero percent.