Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals held off the Cincinnati Reds 6-5 at Busch Stadium on June 6, 2026, in a game that swung dramatically across the middle innings before St. Louis ultimately sealed it. The DiamondIQ model entered with a 60% home win probability for the Cardinals and closed at 100%, though the path there was anything but smooth as Cincinnati put together enough offense to make the final frames tense.

The game's most decisive sequence came in the bottom of the eighth, when Lars Nootbaar connected on a home run off Sam Moll that shifted win probability by plus 34.9 points, the single biggest swing of the night and the blow that effectively put St. Louis back in command. The Cardinals had briefly ceded momentum in the top of the third and fourth, when a JJ Bleday-driven error off Matthew Liberatore added 14.9 points of win probability for Cincinnati, and Matt McLain followed in the fourth with a home run off Liberatore worth plus 20.4 points, giving the Reds a lead they held through the middle innings. Cincinnati's inability to extend that advantage was crystallized in the bottom of the sixth, when Jimmy Crooks grounded into a double play off Tejay Antone, a minus 21.1-point swing that cut off a potential Cardinals rally and kept the game tight heading into the late innings.

Among the top individual performers by the DiamondIQ model's estimates, Nootbaar finished with a cumulative plus 48.5 WPA and plus 2.7 RE24, easily the standout figure in the box score. McLain led Cincinnati's contributors with plus 19.2 WPA and plus 2.2 RE24, and Bleday added plus 17.6 WPA on the strength of his third-inning involvement. On the mound, Tejay Antone paced the Cardinals' staff at plus 22.0 WPA, with Riley O'Brien contributing plus 15.2 in closing out a Sal Stewart groundout in the ninth that registered minus 20.7 points for the Reds, ending Cincinnati's final threat and locking in the Cardinals' one-run victory.