New York Mets at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres defeated the New York Mets 3-2 on June 6, 2026 at Petco Park, with the DiamondIQ model entering the game giving the home side a 62 percent win probability and closing at 100 percent as San Diego held on through nine innings. The Mets drew first with a run in the second inning, and Marcus Semien brought them back within reach in the seventh with a home run off Bradgley Rodriguez that shifted win probability 15.6 points in New York's favor, briefly threatening to turn the contest. But Freddy Fermin answered immediately in the bottom half of the seventh with a home run off Austin Warren that swung win probability 34.0 points toward San Diego, the single most consequential play of the night and the decisive blow that put the Padres ahead for good.

Fermin finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus 29.7 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.5, while Semien's homer earned him a plus 14.9 percent WPA mark and a RE24 of plus 1.4 despite coming on the losing side. Sung-Mun Song also contributed meaningfully for San Diego, posting plus 11.1 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 0.9. Fernando Tatis Jr. had added an early lift with a run-scoring single off Nolan McLean in the third inning, worth plus 9.3 percent in win probability, helping San Diego build a platform before the seventh-inning exchange defined the game's outcome.

On the mound, Nolan McLean led all pitchers with a plus 27.1 percent WPA, followed by Mason Miller at plus 15.2 percent and Jason Adam at plus 10.8 percent. Adam was on the hill in the eighth when Juan Soto grounded into a double play, a sequence that cost the Mets 14.1 points of win probability and effectively ended any realistic path to a comeback. The Mets finished with six hits to San Diego's five but left themselves without the margin for error that a one-run road game demands, and the DiamondIQ model's pre-game lean toward the Padres proved well-founded.