New York Mets at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets shut out the San Diego Padres 5-0 at Petco Park on June 5, 2026, completing a dominant road victory that erased what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 61 percent pre-game home win probability for San Diego down to zero by the final out. The Mets spread their scoring across the second, third, fifth, and ninth innings, never allowing the Padres to mount any sustained threat against a pitching staff that held San Diego to just three hits on the night.

The decisive sequence came courtesy of Luis Torrens, whose fifth-inning home run off Michael King shifted win probability by plus 15.2 percent in New York's favor, representing the single largest swing of the contest. That blow extended what had already been a difficult evening for King, who also surrendered a Bo Bichette triple in the third — a plus 7.6 percent swing — and a Jared Young home run in the second, worth plus 4.9 percent. On the San Diego side, a Bryce Johnson groundout in the bottom of the second represented the Padres' best opportunity squandered, costing them 7.1 percent in win probability, while a Marcus Semien double play in the fourth erased another potential rally before it developed.

Christian Scott was the pillar of the performance, contributing plus 30.0 percent in WPA to lead all pitchers on either side, with Huascar Brazobán adding plus 6.3 percent in relief. Among hitters, Torrens finished as the game's top performer at plus 19.3 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.9, followed by Bichette at plus 7.4 percent WPA and Young at plus 7.1 percent WPA, giving New York a balanced offensive effort that the model's final win probability of zero for San Diego accurately reflected.