Kansas City Royals at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds walked off the Kansas City Royals 4-3 in ten innings on June 2, 2026, at Great American Ball Park, erasing a three-run deficit in dramatic fashion after the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Cincinnati win, which opened at 67 percent before first pitch, climbed to 100 percent by game's end. Kansas City had held a 3-0 advantage entering the bottom of the fourth inning, when the Royals plated all three of their runs, and the Reds offense went quiet until the later stages of the game.

The pivotal sequence unfolded across three separate late-inning moments. Spencer Steer started Cincinnati's comeback with a home run off Matt Strahm in the bottom of the eighth that shifted the DiamondIQ model's estimate by plus-18.8 percent. Then Will Benson delivered the most consequential swing of the night, lining a home run off Lucas Erceg in the bottom of the ninth to tie the game at three, a blow worth plus-44.1 percent in win probability. Kansas City had a chance to take the lead in the top of the tenth, but Jac Caglianone's lineout off Brock Burke swung the model minus-18.7 percent, and Vinnie Pasquantino's subsequent groundout recovered plus-16.4 percent for Cincinnati. Blake Dunn then ended it with a walk-off single off John Schreiber in the bottom of the tenth, worth plus-41.4 percent.

On the individual ledger, Benson led all batters with plus-44.1 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.0, while both Dunn and Steer posted plus-33.3 percent WPA, with Steer's RE24 of plus-1.4 standing as the highest among position players. On the pitching side, Noah Cameron was Cincinnati's most valuable arm, contributing plus-36.2 percent WPA to keep the Reds within striking distance long enough for the offense to rally.