Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 9-5 on May 31, 2026, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, turning what began as an even contest into a comfortable home win. The DiamondIQ model opened the game with a 52 percent home win probability, reflecting a near coin-flip matchup, but by the final out that figure had reached 100 percent as Baltimore steadily pulled away.

The decisive stretch came in the bottom of the third inning, where Baltimore stacked three of the five biggest win-probability swings of the game against Toronto starter Spencer Miles. Colton Cowser's home run was the single most impactful at-bat of the night, adding 12.5 percent to Baltimore's win probability, followed by Pete Alonso's single at plus 10.0 percent and Samuel Basallo's double at plus 8.1 percent. Basallo had also drawn a walk off Miles in the second inning worth 3.8 percent. The Orioles plated five runs in that third frame alone and added three more in the sixth, building a lead Toronto could never seriously threaten. The Blue Jays did manage four runs in the eighth, but the damage had been done far too early.

Individually, Cowser led all position players with a WPA of plus 13.1 percent and a RE24 of plus 3.0, while Alonso finished at plus 12.6 percent WPA and Basallo at plus 12.0 percent WPA with a RE24 of plus 1.9. On the pitching side, Kyle Bradish was the clear standout, posting a WPA of plus 13.1 percent as Baltimore's top arm of the evening. The model leans toward crediting the third-inning cluster of run-scoring events as the true turning point, as the collective damage inflicted on Miles effectively ended the competitive portion of the game before the fourth inning began.