Arizona Diamondbacks at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap

The Seattle Mariners handled the Arizona Diamondbacks 5-1 at T-Mobile Park on May 30, 2026, a game that was effectively decided by a barrage of home runs in the second and third innings. The DiamondIQ model opened with an even 50 percent home win probability, but Seattle's early power display pushed that figure to 100 percent by the final out.

Arizona starter Ryne Nelson bore the brunt of the damage. In the second inning, Luke Raley connected for a home run that shifted win probability by 7.6 percent in Seattle's favor, followed almost immediately by a Dominic Canzone home run worth 7.2 percent. The Mariners extended the lead in the third when Colt Emerson deposited another ball over the fence for the game's single largest win-probability swing at plus 7.8 percent, with Julio Rodriguez adding a home run of his own off Nelson for an additional 6.4 percent swing. All four of those home runs came at Nelson's expense, and by the time the third inning concluded Seattle had built what proved to be an insurmountable 4-0 advantage, adding a sixth-inning run to reach the final margin.

On the individual ledger, Raley led all batters with plus 9.5 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.9, while Canzone and Emerson contributed plus 7.1 and plus 7.3 percent respectively. The most commanding performance, however, belonged to Bryan Woo on the mound. Woo posted a game-high plus 21.5 percent WPA, anchoring a Seattle pitching staff that held Arizona to just three hits and one unearned run, with Cooper Criswell and Ryan Thompson completing the game without incident. The Diamondbacks' lone run came in the ninth inning, long after the outcome had been settled.