Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago White Sox walked off the Detroit Tigers 4-3 in ten innings on May 29, 2026, at Rate Field, capping a game the DiamondIQ model had opened with a 68 percent home win probability and closed at 100. The decisive blow came in the bottom of the tenth when Miguel Vargas crushed a walk-off home run off Drew Anderson, a swing that shifted win probability by 94.8 points and ended any remaining suspense in an otherwise tightly contested extra-inning affair. Detroit had briefly seized momentum in the top of the third when Dillon Dingler connected on a two-run home run off Erick Fedde, a plus-20.0 percent WPA play that gave the Tigers an early 2-1 edge they carried deep into the game.

The White Sox chipped away at that deficit before forcing extras, with Tristan Peters delivering a key single off Kyle Finnegan in the bottom of the ninth worth 23.2 points of win probability, helping set the stage for the walk-off inning. Detroit threatened to extend the game in the top of the tenth, but Kevin McGonigle's strikeout against Bryan Hudson swung probability 23.1 points back toward Chicago, preserving the White Sox position heading into their half. Vargas was not without blemish — his ground into a double play in the bottom of the eighth cost Chicago 19.0 points of win probability — but his walk-off homer more than erased that mistake, finishing with a game-high plus-82.1 percent WPA and a plus-1.7 RE24.

On the pitching side, Troy Melton led all pitchers with a plus-39.3 percent WPA contribution, followed by Will Vest at plus-23.3 and Sean Newcomb at plus-20.3, a trio that collectively kept Detroit's offense, which managed just four hits on the night, largely in check. Chicago finished with ten hits compared to Detroit's four, and the Tigers' lone error compounded their difficulty. The model's lean had favored Chicago from first pitch, and Vargas's tenth-inning swing made that projection look prescient.