Miami Marlins at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 2 |
| NYM | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 0 |
The Story
The New York Mets walked off the Miami Marlins 9-7 in ten innings on May 29, 2026, at Citi Field, completing a comeback that swung the DiamondIQ model's estimate from a modest 51 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. The decisive blow came in the bottom of the tenth when MJ Melendez connected for a home run off Pete Fairbanks, a swing worth +41.4 percent in win probability and the single biggest moment in a game that had traded leads deep into the extra frame. That hit anchored Melendez's night as the top offensive performer by a significant margin, finishing with a cumulative +45.0 percent WPA and a +2.1 RE24, reflecting his outsized impact on the game's run-environment from start to finish.
Miami had genuine momentum heading into the late innings, with Owen Caissie delivering a home run off Tobias Myers in the top of the eighth that shifted win probability by +27.7 percent and briefly gave the Marlins a path to victory. The Marlins also took advantage of a Connor Norby single in the fourth inning, a +12.3 percent swing off Freddy Peralta, though the frame was partially neutralized by Caissie's own strikeout in that same inning, which cost Miami 13.6 percent in win probability. Despite Caissie finishing as the second-most impactful Marlins bat at +19.6 percent WPA, Miami's two errors alongside a more efficient Mets offense proved costly. Xavier Edwards also contributed meaningfully for Miami, posting +17.1 percent WPA and a +1.3 RE24.
On the pitching side, the Mets bullpen ultimately did enough to secure the win, with Luke Weaver leading New York's staff at +13.5 percent WPA, followed by Anthony Bender at +10.9 percent and A.J. Minter at +8.8 percent. Bo Bichette's flyout to end the ninth inning, recorded as a +14.0 percent win-probability event for New York off Michael Petersen, helped preserve the tie and set the stage for Melendez's walk-off. Miami finished with more hits, 13 to New York's 8, but the Mets' clean defensive game and the model-shifting power of Melendez's tenth-inning homer told the final story.