Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 7-2 at PNC Park on May 28, 2026, handing the home side a complete reversal from the DiamondIQ model's pre-game 50 percent home win probability to a final estimate of zero. The game remained scoreless through the first three innings before Seiya Suzuki cracked a single off Paul Skenes in the fourth that pushed Chicago ahead by a run, a play the DiamondIQ model valued at a 9.2 percent win-probability swing. The Cubs extended that lead in the sixth when Ian Happ singled again off Skenes, a hit worth 14.9 percent in win probability, adding to what would become a dominant individual performance. Pittsburgh responded in the bottom half of the sixth with some life, as Tyler Callihan laced a double off Hoby Milner that represented a 15.1 percent swing back toward the Pirates, and Bryan Reynolds followed with a home run off Colin Rea worth 11.2 percent, pulling the score to 3-2 and briefly making the outcome feel competitive.

Any remaining uncertainty dissolved in the top of the eighth when Happ launched a home run off Brandan Bidois, the single most consequential play of the night at plus 27.5 percent win probability, part of a three-run Cubs frame that pushed the final margin to 7-2. Happ finished as the game's most impactful player by a significant margin, accumulating a combined WPA of plus 42.8 percent and a RE24 of plus 2.5 across his multiple pivotal contributions. On the pitching side, Colin Rea led Cubs hurlers with a WPA of plus 11.4 percent, followed by Caleb Thielbar at plus 9.7 percent and Mason Montgomery at plus 4.8 percent. Chicago finished with eight hits and no errors while Pittsburgh committed two errors, factors that contributed to the lopsided final margin despite the Pirates managing six hits of their own.