Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies held on to defeat the San Diego Padres 4-3 at Petco Park on May 26, 2026, completing a comeback that the DiamondIQ model's estimate never fully surrendered despite San Diego entering the night as a 60 percent favorite. Philadelphia scored in each of the first three innings, with Trea Turner's third-inning home run off Randy Vásquez delivering a 9.2 percent win-probability swing that extended the Phillies lead to 4-0. The Padres answered in the fourth when Manny Machado connected off Aaron Nola for a two-run home run, a swing worth 15.5 percent in San Diego's favor, and then added another run in the eighth on a Ramón Laureano home run off Brad Keller that pushed the DiamondIQ model's estimate back toward a contested finish.

That eighth inning was the decisive stretch of the game, swinging in both directions with force. Laureano's blast added 18.8 percent to San Diego's win probability and trimmed the deficit to one, but Machado's groundout to close the frame cost the Padres 22.1 percent, extinguishing a potential rally and leaving Philadelphia one inning from victory. In the bottom of the ninth, Ty France struck out against Jhoan Duran with what amounted to a 31.6 percent swing in Philadelphia's favor, representing the single largest win-probability event of the game and sealing the final out.

Aaron Nola led all pitchers with a 23.7 percent WPA contribution despite surrendering Machado's home run, with Orion Kerkering and Bradgley Rodriguez adding 8.8 and 6.3 percent respectively to close it out. Among position players, Ty France finished with a cumulative WPA of plus-23.5 percent, largely on the strength of that final strikeout, while Laureano's plus-16.3 percent reflected his clutch eighth-inning blow for San Diego. Trea Turner added plus-6.6 percent on the strength of his third-inning home run as Philadelphia improved to take the road victory.