Seattle Mariners at Athletics: Final Score & Recap

The Seattle Mariners dismantled the Athletics 9-2 at Sutter Health Park on May 25, 2026, turning what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 57 percent pre-game home win probability into a decisive road victory. The game was effectively settled in a single inning, as Seattle erupted for six runs in the third to drain any competitive tension from the contest.

The third-inning outburst did the bulk of the damage and produced the highest win-probability swings of the night, all against Athletics starter Aaron Civale. Luke Raley delivered the biggest blow, a home run that shifted win probability 14.9 percent in Seattle's favor and anchored his game-leading totals of plus-15.3 percent WPA and plus-1.2 RE24. Randy Arozarena followed with a double worth plus-11.2 percent WPA, finishing the game at plus-11.1 percent WPA and a team-high plus-2.7 RE24, reflecting the run-environment damage he inflicted. Dominic Canzone added a home run of his own in that same inning, contributing plus-8.8 percent WPA on the play and closing at plus-8.0 percent WPA with plus-1.3 RE24 for the game. A Julio Rodriguez single and a Colt Emerson walk also factored into the inning, each adding to the accumulated pressure on Civale.

On the mound, Luis Castillo was the primary architect of the pitching performance, posting plus-11.4 percent WPA and holding the Athletics offense largely in check through his outing. Bryce Miller and Jack Perkins each added modest positive contributions out of the bullpen. Seattle added single runs in the fourth and ninth innings to reach nine, while Oakland managed only two runs, one in the eighth and one in the ninth, long after the DiamondIQ model's win probability for the home side had bottomed out at zero.