Houston Astros at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Houston Astros overcame a 3-1 deficit after two innings to defeat the Chicago Cubs 8-5 at Wrigley Field on May 24, 2026, handing Chicago a loss despite the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a 66 percent pre-game home win probability for the Cubs. Houston's comeback was methodical, adding a run in the third before the game turned decisively in the fifth inning, when the Astros plated five runs to seize control. A ninth-inning run extended the lead to its final margin, leaving the Cubs' probability at zero by game's end.

The pivotal sequence came in that fifth inning against Shota Imanaga. Christian Walker's home run was the single most impactful play of the game, swinging Houston's win probability by 30.3 percent, and Jeremy Peña followed with a single that added another 16.6 percent swing, collectively dismantling whatever momentum Chicago had built from its three-run second. The Cubs did show signs of life in the seventh, when Michael Busch hit a home run off AJ Blubaugh to account for a 14.5 percent swing, trimming the deficit and briefly tightening the game. However, Pedro Ramírez's grounded-into-double-play in the eighth off Bryan Abreu proved the killing blow, a negative 16.6 percent swing that effectively ended any Chicago rally.

Among the standout performers by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, Walker led all batters with a plus-28.8 percent WPA and plus-2.4 RE24, while Nick Allen contributed plus-21.2 percent WPA and a game-best plus-2.9 RE24. Peña added plus-15.3 percent WPA to round out Houston's offensive core. On the pitching side, Bryan Abreu was the bullpen's most valuable contributor at plus-13.3 percent WPA, with Phil Maton adding plus-3.4 percent as Houston's relief corps protected the lead through the final frames.