Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
The Story
The Pittsburgh Pirates handed the St. Louis Cardinals a 6-2 defeat at Busch Stadium on May 21, 2026, completing a decisive road win that erased what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 59 percent pre-game probability of a Cardinals victory. Pittsburgh struck first in the top of the first, and while St. Louis answered with a run in the bottom of the third on an Iván Herrera home run off Braxton Ashcraft that shifted win probability 11.2 percent in the Cardinals' favor, the Pirates methodically dismantled the home side across the middle innings. The Pirates finished with 10 hits and committed no errors, while St. Louis managed 8 hits but left too many opportunities unrealized, most notably when a Pedro Pagés groundout in the bottom of the second removed 7.4 percent from the Cardinals' win probability at a moment they needed to capitalize against Ashcraft.
The sixth inning proved to be the decisive sequence, with Pittsburgh pushing across two runs in a stretch that swung the game's probability sharply and permanently. Marcell Ozuna delivered a single off Dustin May that added 12.3 percent to Pittsburgh's win probability, and Konnor Griffin followed with a double off May worth another 9.1 percent, effectively closing the door on any Cardinals comeback. The Pirates also scored two more in the seventh to reach six runs total, pushing the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Cardinals win to zero percent by game's end.
Braxton Ashcraft was the story of the night from a pitching standpoint, accumulating a commanding plus-29.5 percent WPA as he navigated the Cardinals lineup and kept St. Louis largely in check despite the Herrera home run. Ozuna led all position players with a combined plus-18.6 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.4, his contributions in the fourth and sixth innings proving central to the Pirates' offensive construction. Spencer Horwitz added plus-10.5 percent WPA in support, while Herrera's plus-9.6 percent WPA on plus-1.0 RE24 represented the Cardinals' lone reliable bright spot in an otherwise controlled loss.