MLB Recap · May 21, 2026

Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees: Final Score & Recap

TOR2
Final
NYY0

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
TOR100000100270
NYY000000000030

The Story

The Toronto Blue Jays shut out the New York Yankees 2-0 at Yankee Stadium on May 21, 2026, overcoming a pre-game environment in which the DiamondIQ model's estimate gave New York a 66 percent chance of winning. Toronto scored the only run it would need in the first inning and added an insurance run in the seventh, holding the Yankees to three hits across nine innings while committing no errors.

The decisive sequence came in the top of the seventh, when George Springer connected on a home run off Camilo Doval that shifted win probability by plus-14.5 percent in Toronto's favor, effectively doubling the Blue Jays' lead and tightening the Yankees' path to a comeback. New York's best threats dissolved in the eighth and ninth innings. Aaron Judge grounded into a double play off Tyler Rogers in the bottom of the eighth, a swing of minus-14.4 percent in win probability for the Yankees, erasing what had briefly felt like a window after J.C. Escarra drew a walk to extend the inning. Paul Goldschmidt then struck out to end the ninth against Jeff Hoffman, a plus-14.4 percent swing that closed the door entirely and brought the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a New York win to zero percent.

Ernie Clement led all position players with a plus-17.8 percent WPA contribution and a RE24 of plus-1.1, anchoring Toronto's offensive production alongside Springer's plus-12.7 percent WPA effort. On the mound, starter Spencer Miles was the dominant force, generating plus-30.8 percent WPA across his outing, with Tyler Rogers adding plus-13.3 percent and Brent Headrick contributing plus-13.2 percent in support to complete the shutout.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025TOR bats firstFinalNYY win %TOR win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 66.3% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

George Springer Home Run
Top 7th · off Camilo Doval
+14.5%
Paul Goldschmidt Strikeout
Bot 9th · off Jeff Hoffman
+14.4%
Aaron Judge Grounded Into DP
Bot 8th · off Tyler Rogers
-14.4%
Anthony Volpe Flyout
Bot 2nd · off Adam Macko
-9.2%
J.C. Escarra Walk
Bot 8th · off Tyler Rogers
+8.9%

Top Batters by WPA

Ernie Clement+17.8%+1.1 RE24
George Springer+12.7%+0.2 RE24
Paul Goldschmidt+4.1%-0.9 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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