Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Recap

The Cleveland Guardians rallied past the Detroit Tigers 3-2 in ten innings at Comerica Park on May 20, 2026, completing a comeback that the DiamondIQ model had given only a 37 percent chance of unfolding before first pitch. The game was a pitching duel through the first six frames, with neither side scoring until Detroit pushed across a run in the bottom of the seventh. Cleveland answered with one in the ninth to force extras, setting up a decisive tenth inning that swung the contest decisively in the Guardians' favor.

The pivotal moment came in the top of the tenth when Angel Martínez laced a triple off Tyler Holton, a hit the DiamondIQ model credited with a win-probability swing of plus 48.4 percent for Cleveland, the single largest play of the game. Cleveland added another run in the frame to take a 3-1 lead into the bottom half. Detroit's Colt Keith kept things interesting with a rally that included a Zach McKinstry single off Cade Smith, a hit worth plus 23.3 percent in win probability to the Tigers. However, Keith's earlier pop out, which the model valued at plus 27.0 percent in Cleveland's favor, proved the more consequential moment, and Cade Smith closed it out to secure the win. Among the negative swings, Brayan Rocchio's strikeout in the ninth cost Cleveland minus 12.8 percent in win probability, and Patrick Bailey grounded into a double play in the seventh at minus 12.2 percent.

Martínez finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 35.9 percent to go with a RE24 of plus 0.8, while McKinstry posted a RE24 of plus 1.4 to lead all batters in that metric. On the pitching side, Drew Anderson led all hurlers with a WPA of plus 22.9 percent, followed by Brant Hurter at plus 14.7 percent and Kenley Jansen at plus 10.8 percent. The DiamondIQ model's pre-game lean toward Cleveland proved well-founded, as Detroit's win probability fell to zero percent by the final out.