Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap

The Houston Astros held off the Minnesota Twins 2-1 at Target Field on May 19, 2026, securing the road victory despite being a significant underdog according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate, which opened the game with a 59 percent pre-game home win probability for Minnesota. Houston scored both of its runs in the first inning and then leaned entirely on its pitching staff to protect that slim lead through eight innings, leaving the Twins to chase the game from behind all afternoon.

The eighth inning was the most turbulent stretch of the contest. A fielding error on Enyel De Los Santos shifted 16.6 percent of win probability toward Minnesota, with Josh Bell reaching base on the miscue and finishing as one of the game's most impactful offensive players at plus-17.6 percent WPA and plus-1.0 RE24. Byron Buxton followed with a double off De Los Santos, adding another 8.8 percent in Minnesota's favor and setting up what appeared to be a legitimate rally. However, Austin Martin's groundout against Bryan King erased 18.7 percent of Minnesota's win probability in a single swing, a damaging out that effectively stalled the threat and returned control to Houston.

The Astros' pitching staff was the clear story of this game. Jason Alexander led all pitchers with plus-44.6 percent WPA, anchoring Houston's effort through the middle innings, while Bryan King added plus-26.8 percent WPA with that pivotal eighth-inning sequence. Bryan Abreu closed things out in the ninth, inducing a popup from Byron Buxton that represented the final swing of plus-18.8 percent in Houston's favor and sealed the victory. Buxton finished as the most impactful individual by WPA on either side at plus-30.2 percent, a reflection of how much of the game's tension ran directly through him.