Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 13 | 0 |
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
The Story
The Milwaukee Brewers handed the Chicago Cubs a 9-3 defeat at Wrigley Field on May 18, 2026, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 54 percent pre-game home win probability for Chicago and reducing it to zero by the final out. Milwaukee's offense was largely quiet through the first three innings before erupting in the fourth, when a four-run frame off Shota Imanaga effectively ended the competitive portion of the game. Christian Yelich had opened the scoring in the second inning with a home run that shifted win probability 4.9 percent in Milwaukee's favor, but the lasting damage came later.
The decisive sequence arrived in the top of the fourth, where Sal Frelick delivered a double off Imanaga that alone swung win probability by 18.6 percent, the single largest play of the game by that measure. Jackson Chourio contributed a single worth 4.3 percent in the same frame, and Andrew Vaughn added another single at plus 4.7 percent, extending the inning and pushing Milwaukee's advantage beyond recovery. The Cubs responded with three runs of their own in the bottom of the fifth, but that rally came too late and against too large a deficit to matter. Pete Crow-Armstrong's groundout in the second inning, which cost Chicago 4.5 percent in win probability off Brandon Sproat, stood as the lone moment where the home side was held from closing any early gap.
On the individual side, Frelick finished as Milwaukee's top performer by WPA at plus 16.3 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.8, while Vaughn posted plus 7.8 percent WPA and plus 1.3 RE24. Michael Busch led all batters with a RE24 of plus 2.3 alongside a plus 7.2 percent WPA contribution. Brandon Sproat anchored the Milwaukee pitching effort, generating plus 13.1 percent WPA over his time on the mound, with Shane Drohan adding plus 3.2 percent in relief. Imanaga absorbed the bulk of the damage, surrendering hits to Frelick, Vaughn, Yelich, and Chourio across four of the five highest-leverage plays of the contest.