Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| MIN | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | - | 6 | 9 | 0 |
The Story
The Minnesota Twins handled the Houston Astros 6-3 at Target Field on May 18, 2026, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate anticipated from the outset, assigning the home side a 61 percent pre-game win probability that climbed steadily to 100 percent by the final out. Minnesota built its lead methodically through the middle innings, scoring in the second, fourth, and sixth frames while holding Houston off the board until a three-run seventh that amounted to too little, too late.
The game's defining sequence belonged to Josh Bell, whose two home runs off Astros starter Tatsuya Imai did the heaviest structural damage. His second-inning shot nudged Minnesota's win probability up 7.6 percent, but it was his fourth-inning home run that effectively broke the game open, adding 17.4 percent to the Twins' win expectancy and representing the single largest swing of the night. Houston's best chances to claw back dissolved quickly: Zach Dezenzo grounded into a double play in the top of the sixth, costing the Astros 7.9 percent in win probability off Andrew Morris, and Jeremy Peña's fifth-inning lineout against Simeon Woods Richardson bled another 5.2 percent. Yordan Alvarez's strikeout against Taylor Rogers to close the ninth erased any remaining hope.
Bell finished as the game's most impactful performer by a wide margin, accumulating plus-28.9 percent in WPA and a RE24 of plus-3.3. Christian Vázquez contributed a secondary lift at plus-9.7 percent WPA and plus-1.5 RE24. On the pitching side, Kendry Rojas led Minnesota's staff with plus-10.6 percent WPA, with Rogers and Eric Orze adding 7.1 and 5.4 percent respectively to close out a clean, error-free Minnesota victory.