MLB Recap · May 16, 2026

Texas Rangers at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap

TEX1
Final
HOU4

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
TEX000000100160
HOU20020000-450

The Story

The Houston Astros defeated the Texas Rangers 4-1 on May 16, 2026, at Daikin Park, building a lead they never relinquished through a pair of two-run frames and holding off a brief Rangers rally in the seventh. Houston scored twice in the first inning and added two more in the fourth, which proved more than enough as the DiamondIQ model's estimate of Houston's win probability climbed from a pre-game 48 percent all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Texas managed six hits but could not convert them into runs until the seventh, finishing the night without an error but with very little to show offensively.

The swing of the game came in layers, and the DiamondIQ model captured them clearly through WPA. Justin Foscue's runner-out in the second inning cost Texas 10.4 percentage points of win probability off Kai-Wei Teng, the single biggest negative play of the night for the Rangers and a moment that reflected their broader inability to capitalize on opportunities against Teng. Christian Walker's home run off Jacob deGrom in the bottom of the fourth added 8.0 percentage points to Houston's side, extending the lead to four and effectively putting the game away. The Rangers managed a small response in the seventh when Joc Pederson singled off Enyel De Los Santos, accounting for a 6.6-point swing, but Andrew McCutchen's flyout off Bryan King immediately after cost Texas 9.2 points and ended any meaningful threat.

Kai-Wei Teng was the night's most impactful performer by a wide margin, posting a WPA of plus-24.7 percent as he repeatedly suppressed Texas in high-leverage situations. On the offensive side, Joc Pederson led all batters with a WPA of plus-12.4 and a RE24 of plus-1.4, while Christian Walker contributed plus-7.5 WPA and Zach Cole added plus-5.5. Bryan King and Bryan Abreu each contributed positively out of the Houston bullpen, with WPA figures of plus-6.6 and plus-6.4 respectively, closing out a clean and well-executed Houston victory.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025TEX bats firstFinalHOU win %TEX win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 47.7% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Justin Foscue Runner Out
Top 2nd · off Kai-Wei Teng
-10.4%
Andrew McCutchen Flyout
Top 7th · off Bryan King
-9.2%
Christian Walker Home Run
Bot 4th · off Jacob deGrom
+8.0%
Jake Burger Groundout
Top 4th · off Kai-Wei Teng
-6.6%
Joc Pederson Single
Top 7th · off Enyel De Los Santos
+6.6%

Top Batters by WPA

Joc Pederson+12.4%+1.4 RE24
Christian Walker+7.5%+0.7 RE24
Zach Cole+5.5%+0.7 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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