San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres overcame a quiet eight innings to stun the Milwaukee Brewers 3-1 at American Family Field on May 13, 2026, rallying entirely in the ninth inning to erase what had been a competitive, low-scoring contest. Through eight frames the game had produced just a single run, a Milwaukee tally in the bottom of the fifth, and the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a San Diego victory had dwindled well below the pregame baseline of a 52 percent home win probability for the Brewers. Then Gavin Sheets changed everything. His ninth-inning home run off Abner Uribe carried a win-probability swing of plus 77.8 percent, the single most decisive play of the game and the defining moment of the entire contest. Two additional Padres crossed the plate in that frame, pushing San Diego to a 3-1 lead heading to the bottom of the ninth, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate settling at zero percent for Milwaukee.

Mason Miller closed out the game for San Diego, and the Brewers mounted the faintest flicker of resistance. Luis Rengifo's single added plus 7.8 percent win probability for Milwaukee, but strikeouts of Jackson Chourio and Sal Frelick ended any realistic hope, with those two outs collectively swinging the model plus 18.5 percent back in San Diego's favor. On the pitching side, Jacob Misiorowski led all players with a plus 37.1 percent WPA, followed by Aaron Ashby at plus 10.8 percent and Michael King at plus 10.6 percent, a collective effort that kept Milwaukee at bay long enough for the offense to ignite. San Diego finished with six hits and no errors; Milwaukee collected nine hits but could not convert them into runs beyond the fifth inning. The model, which had leaned slightly toward Milwaukee before first pitch, was decisively overturned by one swing in the ninth.