San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the San Diego Padres 6-4 on May 12, 2026, at American Family Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Milwaukee victory climbing from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability to a virtual certainty by the final out. The game turned almost entirely on a chaotic fourth inning that featured the decisive action for both clubs. The Padres struck first in the top half, with Nick Castellanos delivering a single off Brandon Sproat that swung win probability 20.4 percent in San Diego's favor, representing the largest single-play swing of the evening. Milwaukee answered emphatically in the bottom of the fourth against Matt Waldron, as Sal Frelick's single added 14.9 percent win probability and Brice Turang followed with a double worth 13.6 percent, helping the Brewers erase the deficit and seize a lead they would not relinquish. Joey Ortiz had set the tone even earlier with a solo home run in the bottom of the third, also off Waldron, a swing worth 11.1 percent in win probability.

When accounting for cumulative impact across the full game, Ortiz finished as Milwaukee's top contributor by WPA at plus 14.8 percent, pairing that with a RE24 of plus 1.1. Turang was close behind at plus 13.4 percent WPA and led all position players with a RE24 of plus 1.4. On the San Diego side, Castellanos posted plus 13.1 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.1, though his contributions could not overcome the Brewers' fourth-inning surge. Fernando Tatis Jr. suffered the game's sharpest negative swing, grounding into a double play in the top of the third against Sproat at a cost of 9.5 percent win probability, a moment that effectively stalled what could have been an early Padres advantage. Out of the bullpen, Abner Uribe led Milwaukee's relievers with plus 6.3 percent WPA, followed by Shane Drohan at plus 5.4 percent and Chad Patrick at plus 5.0 percent, as the trio helped preserve the two-run margin through the final frames.