Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 11 | 0 |
| HOU | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
The Story
The Seattle Mariners handed the Houston Astros a lopsided 10-2 defeat at Daikin Park on May 12, 2026, erasing what had been a 42 percent pre-game win probability for Houston according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate. Seattle scored in five of nine innings and never allowed Houston to threaten in any sustained way, finishing with 11 hits against zero errors while holding the Astros to just five hits.
The decisive sequence came in the fourth inning, when Dominic Canzone drove a home run off Tatsuya Imai that shifted win probability by 20.1 percentage points in Seattle's favor, the single largest swing of the game. That blow was set up earlier in the frame when a J.P. Crawford walk added another 7.4 percentage points to Seattle's advantage, reflecting just how thoroughly the Mariners had taken command. Canzone's earlier teammate Randy Arozarena had already done damage in the second inning, connecting for a home run off Imai that moved the needle 7.7 points Seattle's way. Houston's best moment came in the bottom of the third, when Christian Walker doubled off Bryan Woo for an 11.4-point swing, but the Astros were unable to convert that leverage into a meaningful run differential. A Julio Rodriguez groundout into a double play in the top of the third represented Seattle's costliest moment, costing them 7.2 percentage points.
By final WPA totals, Canzone led all players at plus-18.6 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.2, while Arozarena posted a plus-15.2 percent WPA and a game-high plus-3.7 RE24, reflecting how consistently he created run-scoring opportunities throughout the lineup. Walker was the lone Astro to register a meaningful WPA contribution at plus-11.6 percent, though Houston's pitching staff provided little resistance after the early innings. Seattle's pitching corps, led in WPA terms by Alex Hoppe, combined to limit Houston entirely through the game's final stages.