New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles defeated the New York Yankees 3-2 on May 11, 2026, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, rallying from a two-run deficit with a three-run seventh inning to complete the comeback. The Yankees had entered the night as heavy underdogs, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate placing Baltimore's pre-game win probability at just 37 percent, but by game's end that figure had climbed to 100 percent.

The Yankees struck first in the third inning when Ben Rice delivered a home run off Brandon Young, a swing that shifted win probability 18.1 points in New York's favor and gave the visitors a lead they would carry into the seventh. That lead evaporated in dramatic fashion when Coby Mayo came to the plate against Brent Headrick and connected for a home run that moved the needle 38.7 percentage points toward Baltimore, the single most consequential play of the game. Mayo finished as the game's most impactful batter by a wide margin, posting a cumulative WPA of plus-41.3 percent and a RE24 of plus-2.5. Adley Rutschman contributed meaningfully to the seventh-inning rally as well, lacing a single off Ryan Weathers for a plus-7.0 percent win-probability swing before the frame concluded.

On the pitching side, Ryan Weathers and Anthony Nunez each played important roles in protecting the one-run lead through the final innings, generating WPA figures of plus-16.0 and plus-15.2 respectively. Nunez closed the door in the ninth, aided by a strikeout of Jazz Chisholm Jr. that cost the Yankees 7.1 points of win probability. Ben Rice's home run made him the Yankees' standout performer with a WPA of plus-11.9 and a RE24 of plus-1.7, but it was not enough to overcome Mayo's decisive blow.