Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

The Minnesota Twins edged the Cleveland Guardians 2-1 in eleven innings at Progressive Field on May 9, 2026, completing a comeback that erased what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 63 percent pre-game home win probability for Cleveland. The Guardians scored first, plating a run in the fourth inning to take a 1-0 lead that held deep into regulation, but Minnesota tied the game and ultimately won it in extras as Cleveland's one-run advantage and home-field edge evaporated entirely by the final out.

The extra innings proved decisive and swung wildly. In the bottom of the tenth, Rhys Hoskins drew a walk off Eric Orze that shifted win probability by plus-20.0 percent in Cleveland's favor, representing the largest single-play swing of the game, only for that momentum to reverse when Daniel Schneemann lined out in the same frame, a minus-17.5 percent swing that kept the game tied. Brayan Rocchio's forceout to end the ninth off Orze had already cost the Guardians 17.5 percent in win probability. Minnesota ultimately broke through in the top of the eleventh when Byron Buxton doubled off Peyton Pallette for an 18.7 percent swing, plating what proved to be the winning run. Rocchio's groundout to end the Cleveland eleventh off Luis García added another 19.0 percent swing that sealed the result.

Joe Ryan led all performers with a plus-29.0 percent WPA contribution on the mound for Minnesota, underscoring how thoroughly he controlled the game through regulation. Among Cleveland's position players, Hoskins led with a plus-16.9 percent WPA and 0.9 RE24, while Travis Bazzana contributed plus-15.4 percent WPA in a losing effort. Tanner Bibee posted a plus-16.8 percent WPA for the Guardians' pitching staff. The Twins finished with two hits and no errors against Cleveland's two hits and one error, a margin that illustrated just how tightly contested and ultimately unforgiving this game was for the home side.