Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Seattle Mariners defeated the Chicago White Sox 12-8 at Rate Field on May 8, 2026, in a game that began evenly before Seattle pulled away decisively. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 50 percent home win probability, reflecting a genuinely competitive matchup on paper, but that figure fell to zero by the final out as the Mariners accumulated a 12-run, 12-hit, error-free performance against a Chicago club that committed one error and could not contain the damage through the middle and late innings.

The decisive driver of the outcome was Luke Raley, whose two home runs accounted for the two largest win-probability swings of the game. His third-inning blast off Sean Burke shifted the DiamondIQ model's estimate by plus-31.3 percent, arriving in a frame that saw both clubs combine for eight runs and defined the game's competitive center. Raley added a second home run in the seventh inning off Tyler Davis worth plus-28.7 percent, effectively closing the door on any Chicago recovery and finishing with a game-high plus-45.0 percent WPA and plus-4.1 RE24. Julio Rodríguez also contributed in the fifth inning with a home run off Burke worth plus-12.3 percent. On the Chicago side, Colson Montgomery's double off Emerson Hancock in the bottom of the third generated plus-17.5 percent and helped fuel the White Sox's four-run answer in that inning, finishing with a plus-18.9 percent WPA mark.

Among the pitchers, Sean Newcomb led Chicago's staff with plus-11.8 percent WPA, in part by inducing a Raley groundout in the fifth inning that subtracted 11.1 percent from Seattle's win probability — the one moment where the White Sox briefly clawed back leverage. Eduard Bazardo contributed plus-3.6 percent in relief, and Seranthony Domínguez added plus-0.1 percent, though none of it proved sufficient given the offensive hole Chicago could not escape. J.P. Crawford rounded out Seattle's notable performers with plus-12.8 percent WPA and plus-0.8 RE24.