Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| CHC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 1 |
The Story
The Chicago Cubs walked off the Cincinnati Reds 7-6 in ten innings on May 6, 2026 at Wrigley Field, surviving a four-run Cincinnati rally in the top of the ninth before securing the win in extra innings. The DiamondIQ model opened the game favoring Chicago at 68% and closed at 100% following the walk-off.
The decisive turning point came in the bottom of the ninth when Pete Crow-Armstrong delivered a home run off Graham Ashcraft, a swing that shifted win probability by plus 48.7 percentage points and erased what had appeared to be a Cincinnati lead. That single play represented the largest win-probability swing of the game and pulled Chicago even after the Reds had staged a remarkable top-half comeback. The Reds had built that four-run ninth largely through a JJ Bleday single off Hoby Milner that swung probability by 27.0 points, followed by a Matt McLain sacrifice bunt that added another 24.0 points of leverage, and an Elly De La Cruz sacrifice fly worth 20.7 points, demonstrating how thoroughly Cincinnati controlled the top of that frame before Crow-Armstrong answered.
Chicago finished the job in the bottom of the tenth when Michael Busch drew a bases-loaded walk off Brock Burke, a play that registered plus 33.4 percentage points in win probability and ended the contest. Among individual performers, Crow-Armstrong led all players with plus 48.8 WPA and plus 2.0 RE24, while McLain posted the top RE24 among batters at plus 2.3 despite his team ultimately falling short. On the pitching side, Jacob Webb was the most impactful Cubs reliever with plus 19.6 WPA, ahead of Phil Maton at plus 8.1 and Trent Thornton at plus 4.8.